Projeto-piloto: os modelos de IA conseguem pilotar drones?

Anthropic and Andon Labs

Several of our research projects over the last year have looked at how frontier models interact with the physical world. In Project Vend, AI models ran a small shop; Project Fetch was an early look at robots as the intermediary between digital models and physical objects. As we recently noted in Project Fetch: Phase two, we’re already seeing improvements in model capability such that their ability to use off-the-shelf robots is on track to approach the ease with which coding agents use software tools.

Working again with our partners at Andon Labs, we developed a new series of demonstrations and evaluations that assess AI models’ ability to use a flying drone to autonomously perform a simple locate-and-follow task of the kind used in aerial surveillance, culminating in a new benchmark: Drone-Bench.

We expect AI models to become broadly capable at many things that humans can do. Operating hardware, in particular robots, is one such capability. Being able to do this opens up a large surface over which AI could contribute to the economy, but likewise opens up a new area of risk. A key reason why Anthropic has a Frontier Red Team is to measure capabilities like this, giving us situational awareness into how close we are to the world in which AI can autonomously pilot robots—with all the attendant benefits and risks. Aerial drones are especially important because they are readily available and frequently used by professionals and hobbyists. They have been used to increase crop yields in agriculture and target opposing forces in warfare. Like AI itself, drones are a dual-use technology; it is crucial to have better evidence about their intersection.

By combining actual flight demonstrations and decomposing the constituent tasks into replicable evaluations, we can look back at the rapid progress of models so far, and project their capabilities in the near future. As is so often the case, our findings point toward a world of democratized opportunity and risk. Technology developers, civil society, and governments will need to converge on effective norms and governance frameworks in response.

Evaluation rationale and methods

The core task we tested in Project Fetch—getting a robot dog to retrieve a beach ball—was neither especially practical nor especially concerning. In this project, we chose an objective with clearer utility and policy relevance: a simple locate-and-follow task used in aerial surveillance. Capabilities like automated person-detection and tracking can have legitimate purposes such as search and rescue, disaster response, and lawful public safety uses. But this is a class of capabilities that is also subject to abuse, either through overreach of a legitimate authority or by unaccountable private individuals or organizations. The work we report here thus more closely matches the “dual-use” nature of AI models.

In these experiments, we ask the model to control a quad-rotor drone in an indoor office environment in order to locate and follow a person.¹ This requires a number of complex sub-tasks. The AI model needs to develop schema for controlling the aircraft, mapping and navigating the obstacle-laden indoor space, finding the target individual from a reference photo, and following them (plus reacquiring the target if they move out of frame).

Individually, there are known algorithms for accomplishing all of these tasks. What is not trivial is for the AI model to understand the challenges, identify the preexisting resources it can use to solve them, adapt those off-the-shelf solutions to its current situation, and execute the mission in real time. As we will see, the difficulty—both individually and in chaining these tasks together—is sufficient to distinguish between models of varying intelligence and plot the trajectory of capability improvement.

Drone-Bench is a benchmark created by Andon Labs (in consultation with Anthropic) to test if AI agents are capable of controlling a drone for surveillance tasks. Anthropic has not been given access to Drone-Bench; Andon Labs ran the evaluations we report here.

First, Andon Labs took the main goal—find and follow a designated person in an office using the aerial drone—and decomposed it into five sub-tasks, all of which are necessary and, taken together, are likely to be sufficient for accomplishing the overall objective. These sub-tasks are:

• Reconstruct: Turn videos of the office into a 3D model, and provide a function that slices it into a 2D obstacle map.
• Localize: Given office-video frames with known poses, match the drone's current view to locate it on the 2D obstacle map.
• Navigate: Plan a path between rooms on the obstacle map and fly it, continuously calling Localize during flight to track the drone's position and correct for noisy controls.
• Detect: Once navigated to a room, find the target person in the drone's video feed using a detector built from a reference photo of their face, returning a bounding box around the target in each frame.
• Follow: Use these bounding boxes to control the drone, keeping the target centered in view and at a stable distance as they move.

Next, each of these real-world tasks was reproduced in software so that we could run the models through them multiple times and far faster than needing to set up the physical demo for each instance (this is an improvement over Project Fetch, for example, which was an entirely physical experiment).

It was also important to establish a meaningful baseline of performance. Human-only baselines increasingly don’t reflect the reality of contemporary software engineering, so Andon worked with coding agents to develop algorithms for each sub-task. Putting all of these algorithms crafted by human-AI teams together allowed them to demonstrate end-to-end success, as shown in the below video.

The best performing model was Claude Fable 5, which brings the frontier past the baseline on all tasks except reconstruction. When we then tested its ability to execute the entire demonstration end-to-end on the real drone, it performed noticeably better than the baseline at detecting and following.

However, due to errors from reconstruction that compounded in localization and navigation, it was unable to autonomously navigate between rooms (as you can see in the first part of the below video).

Clearly, Fable’s failure to accurately reconstruct the room is a huge stumbling block. But given models’ capabilities in the other phases, it really just amounts to the missing piece. Once it’s in place, end-to-end performance will suddenly be within reach. This is an advantage of decomposing the evaluation into constituent tasks: we are better positioned to avoid surprise. What would look like a discontinuous jump is revealed to be gradual progress in several necessary, but not sufficient, sub-tasks.

The sub-task view also surfaces encouraging signs. A trend we're seeing when reading Fable 5's submissions is that the model is doing local analysis before submitting its implementation. In one submission, the model calculated the drone's camera extrinsics by analyzing a video from the simulation, estimating the camera tilt to within four degrees of the true value by using the grout lines on the floor to recover the scene's vanishing point. You can see its process below:

In another run, Fable 5 built a 2D top-down reconstruction of what it thought the Follow task's environment looked like, so it could test and iterate on its implementation locally before burning a submission.

The environment differs from the real environment (seen below), but it helped Fable catch some easy bugs!

It’s important to understand how consistently models reach the reference level of performance, as well as whether they can reach it. Here there is obvious room for improvement. When we run 10 simulations, the models reach the human baseline in at least one simulation for four of five tasks. But even Fable 5, the current frontier model, reaches the human baseline on average for only three of the five tasks—and that level of consistency followed six months after the human baseline was exceeded as a one-off for the first time.

Although the complexity of this experiment is greater than some of our previous work and the operating environment of an actual (or simulated) office is more challenging than a wide-open warehouse, the experiment has important limitations: the drones are moving at slow speeds, we only tested in one office floorplan with a limited number of people, and Andon did not test outdoors in large crowds, among many other factors that would have made this more realistic. We still think this pilot provides a real signal about the direction of model capabilities: this evaluation will provide meaningful information about the underlying performance and reliability of models for autonomous targeting and tracking, even though more realistic and diverse experiments would be needed to assess operational capability.

Looking ahead

This experiment highlights the potential of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware and AI-tailored software to support useful, but possibly risky, tasks.

It is important to take seriously the parallel between AI models’ use of software in agentic coding and AI models’ control of hardware. In the early days of agentic coding, humans approved nearly every tool call. But after only a few months, models are now much more trusted to execute long-horizon tasks with minimal intervention.

More generally, at low levels of capability and reliability, keeping a human in the loop is an easy decision because it saves time and resources by augmenting model capabilities or preventing costly mistakes. Once models pass capability and reliability thresholds (such as the human-AI team baseline we used in this experiment), there will be real pressure to treat human oversight as a cost rather than a safeguard. That is exactly why these decisions must be made deliberately, particularly in domains like this one that implicate physical security and privacy and where efficiency alone should not be the governing consideration. As Anthropic has long argued, the requirements for investing in AI alignment, governance, and safety increase with the scale of capabilities. Robotics is no different than other domains in this regard, especially since it implicates physical security and individual privacy.